A very common mistake among bettors is to place bets based on gut feelings. This might work well for a very limited period of time, also known as pure luck. In the long run, this is not the way to make money.
To make sustainable betting profit, you need to understand the term value betting. The very core of value betting is simple math, or more specific probability estimations. The concept is to not bet the result, but instead to bet based on the odds.
The concept “Value Betting”
A simple example; Liverpool plays at home against Norwich in the Premier League. A lot of bettors might say, “this is a safe win for Liverpool, therefore I bet on a home win”. In most cases, this might end well, as it is not a question, whether Liverpool is the favorite or not. However with an odds of 1.14, it is quite clear that the bookmakers have seen this as well. More specifically, the bookmaker has estimated the probability to be 87.7%. We will have a look at the simple calculation below, first a look at the complete example:
Result | Odds | Probability |
Liverpool to win | 1.14 | 87.7% |
Draw | 9.5 | 10.5% |
Norwich to win | 21 | 4.8% |
Total | 103% |
What comes to mind is obviously that the total probability is above 100%. This is of course due to the fact that bookmakers wants to make money, just like you. The concept is easier to understand looking at the game of roulette:
Placing a bet on any number between 0-36 has a payout odds of 35. This means that the probability of winning is 2.63%, while the odds’ implied probability is 2.85%. Unless you have rigged the wheel, it is easy to see, that playing roulette is a game of luck which cannot bring you sustainable profit. Bookmakers work the same way, they set the odds lower than what would match the estimated probability.
Value betting is about finding odds, where you estimate the probability of a result to be higher, than what the bookmaker has estimated. If you are good at spotting this value and sticks to only placing bets when you see value, you will be a successful bettor.
Where do I find value bets?
While the concept of value betting is simple, it is not easy to estimate probability correctly. Without having the big picture and loads of information, you will fail to estimate probability any better than the bookmakers.
This is where BetBatch comes into the picture. Our clear goal is to help you find odds with value. This is best done by having as much information as possible. We collect this information and do our best to organize it for you! In the end, you have to decide whether you spot a value bet or not.
Get started with value betting by looking at the next upcoming matches here and what information we have collected for you today!